Our Thinking – Investment Outlook

Researched, written, edited (brutally), designed and distributed all in-house. The Investment Outlook report is our quarterly flagship communication that runs a macro look at global economies and ties it back to what the Stanford Brown Investment Committee (SBIC) are thinking on a portfolio level.

 

 

 

Investment Outlook

  • Investment Outlook – Q4 2014

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    Volatility is back. Our theme for this quarter’s Outlook is that of dreaming. Financial markets have existed in a dreamlike state for more than five years, lulled to sleep by the soma of Quantitative Easing and ultra-low interest rates. But how much longer will the sleep last and will it eventually turn to a nightmare?

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  • Investment Outlook – Q3 2014

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    All asset classes have performed well over the past 12 months. The current investment environment is extraordinary. Ten year bond yields traded below 3% in Spain and Italy; the European Central Bank cut its headline rate to minus 0.1%; yet world equities markets soared over 20% and junk bonds now pay less than 6%. What could possibly go wrong?

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  • Investment Outlook – Q2 2014

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    The equities bull market recently celebrated its fifth birthday. The party’s in full swing but is the punchbowl running dry? Or worse, are the cops about to be called? Every so often an unwelcome guest pokes his head around the door – this time it’s the spectre of a Chinese debt default, a resurgent and increasingly nationalist Russia, plunging biotech stocks and a one-bedroom apartment in Melbourne costing over $1 million.

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  • Investment Outlook – Q1 2014

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    The advent of a new year is a time for pause and reflection. The theme of this Quarterly Outlook is anniversaries – and in 2014 we are spoilt for choice. We head back to 1913 – a time of peace and prosperity throughout the West; a time with no Federal Reserve Bank.

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  • Investment Outlook – Q4 2013

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    You may well be reading this latest SB Investment Outlook in the knowledge that the US budget impasse is still raging and the US has now defaulted on its debt. If so, please stop reading here, and throw this paper in the recycling bin. It is no longer worth the paper it is written on. For at the time of writing, the impasse is alive and the debt ceiling deadline of Oct 17th is imminent. We have made the call that both will be solved, not because we believe in the wisdom of politicians, but simply because the consequences of a default are too terrifying to contemplate.

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  • Investment Outlook – Q3 2013

    Author: Jonathan Hoyle

    From Gatsby to the Grapes of Wrath. The past 12 months have been a wonderful time to be invested in equities. But with prices now 25% higher, bond yields at ultra-low levels, property at eye-watering levels, term deposit rates falling every month and commodities seemingly in freefall, where are portfolio returns now going to come from?

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