Annual Investment Wrap-Up, Key Themes and What to Expect in 2026

18.12.2025

Join us for a special episode of SB Talks, as CEO Vincent O’Neill sits down with CIO Nick Ryder who shares insights from his 2026 Investment Outlook. From the resilience of global growth in 2025 to the surprising twists in U.S. and European markets, Nick unpacks what played out as expected, and what didn’t.

Together they dive into five critical themes shaping the year ahead:

• The fusion of national security and industrial policy
• The AI boom (and bubble concerns)
• Gamification of investing
• Japan’s corporate renaissance
• Geopolitical undercurrents

 

Get Nick’s strategic take on where markets are headed and the risks that could shift the investment landscape. From equity performance and bond market dynamics to the real implications of the AI revolution, this episode offers clarity and perspective for navigating 2026 with confidence.

 

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Transcript

Vincent: Welcome to SB Talks. I am joined as ever by our trustee Chief Investment Officer, Nick Rider. Welcome Nick.

Nick: Thank you, Vinny.

Vincent: Now Nick is going to do his best to give us a quick flavour of what’s in his 2026 Investment Outlook Report. Time to go grab a quick cup of tea, settle in because it’s a good one. Like any good 2026 outlook will start in 2025. Quick recap. On the year gone, what played out to expectations and what potentially surprised you over the past 12 months?

Nick: I think there’s sort of at a high level, it sort of played out as we, thought that growth would. Continue to be fairly resilient that there wouldn’t be any kind of recession. That the sort of broad settings of sort of improving consumer spending power, as inflation comes down, interest rates come down, things like that that largely played out as we expected. So according to the International Monetary Fund, their forecasting growth this year about 3.2%. That’s broadly in line with sort of long-term trend rates. Similar to the growth rate in 2024. So that at a high level played out as we expected. There were some regional differences, so we were maybe a little too optimistic on the strength of the US economy. We thought that the new Trump administration would do what they did in the first Trump administration, which was to really kind of cut taxes, create sort of more growth boosting strategies, lead with the deregulation strategies from the front.

And what turned out was in fact, they led with the tariffs, the more damaging strategies. The sequencing was different. So, we got that wrong. We thought growth in the US this year would be around 2.7%, similar to kind of where it was the prior year. It looks like it’ll come in about 2%. That’s still not bad for the us it’s a bit above trend, but it’s not as strong as we thought it would be.

Vincent: I think the probably in the early half of the year, halfway through the year, we really had no idea where it was going to end up in terms of the growth rate. But things at least have settled down and provided some more clarity as much as you get with this administration.

Nick: Oh, absolutely. I mean, you just think about how disruptive those liberation day tariffs were. They really caught everyone by surprise. People thought, oh, maybe there would be some modest sort of universal tariff and they maybe you would go after China, but

Vincent: Took on the whole world basically that, that  big beautiful board that he had out the front of the White House. So, everybody’s trying to figure out how did you come up with these numbers?

Nick: So once we saw that we thought, okay, those growth estimates are not looking too flash at the moment. We got that wrong. But interestingly, we were too conservative on Europe. Europe’s actually had a pretty good year. They’ve been fairly resilient despite all that trade noise. I mean, they did do a trade deal with the US so that probably helped settle things down a little bit.

Vincent: We still have conflict ongoing in Europe as well, which was seemed to be a headwind for them. Well, it changing national security picture.

Nick:  It’s a headwind, but it’s also been one of the reasons why they’ve done a little bit better, and that’s because we saw Germany. Really lift the debt break. So that allows them to really spend and borrow a lot more than they have really on defence and related infrastructure. So that’s part of the reason why the Euro zone’s done better this year than we expected. And partly that’s due to the Ukraine conflict. There was some regional differences on China. We were probably a little too cautious. Their economy’s actually been far more resilient than we would’ve thought given the US China trade tensions. So, they’re going to grow roughly 5% this year. We’re touch under that. And Australia is roughly sort of where we, where we expected. I think one of the things that we did get wrong. Is that we thought that the disinflation story would continue.

Vincent: We did, I do recall 12 months ago the transitory conversation was still, was very much at play and we thought maybe team transitory had it, but it’s crept back.

Nick: Yeah. So, I mean, we thought inflation would continue to come down and that hasn’t been the case. Obviously, tariffs are a part of that story. They’ve been inflationary in the US. But I think also just the economy’s been probably a little bit more resilient. Unemployment stayed pretty low. That return of consumer spending powers just created a bit more inflationary pressure. In a lot of countries, inflation’s gone sideways, maybe even a little bit up, you know, as we’ve seen in Australia recently. For example, we thought Australia inflation would come down to 2.7. Trimmed mean, which it did midyear, but then it started going back up again, so we were a bit wrong there.

Vincent: And that obviously is a natural flow through to the outlook for interest rates as well.

Nick: I think in terms of some of the other big calls we made, I mean, we talked about the second Trump presidency he thrives on uncertainty. It would be very interesting to see how that played out if there was a high degree of uncertainty.

Vincent: Yeah, he definitely delivered on that.

Nick: He delivered on that in spades. I think we might have mentioned on this podcast before, we did think there was a good chance that Israel and the US would try and take out Iran’s nuclear facilities given the clock was ticking on that. They did and we thought there’d be maybe some moves towards a peace or ceasefire negotiation with Ukraine, but there may be some escalation ahead of that as the two sides sort of tried to cement their positions. We spoke about the China potentially using critical minerals as a bargaining chip, which we saw them do that, and then the whole theme about around sort of decoupling and defence spending.

Vincent: I was just going to say, just Geopolitical tensions in general are sort of higher than they were 12 months ago. And they’re not all emanating from the White House, but it’s certainly been a catalyst.

Nick: In terms of equity returns, once again, we were too conservative. We spoke last year about having two successive years of 20% plus. Kind of equity returns. We talked about there being four years of 20% plus equity returns leading up to the.com bubble. So, we thought, oh no, that’s not likely to happen. And based on the returns year to date, to November for hedged global equities it’s sitting at around 18. It could potentially tip over the 20 Depends.

Vincent: Led by US equities and technology in particular.

Nick: Again, yeah. We were a bit too cautious. We said sort of high single digit, low double digits around that 10% level last year, driven by earnings, which proved to be broadly correct, but earnings were stronger than what we thought.

Vincent: But it’s interesting there, we’ve got a juxtaposition of the US economy, perhaps not quite as strong as expected, but the equity market’s still charging ahead. And that’s probably a little element of the two speed there of how well the AI economy and it’s called actually the AI share market as well is doing versus. The rest of the pie but want to be revisited in your key themes, no doubt. And maybe let’s, step through to those if we can. So, in the first of your key themes for 2026 is the blending world of national security and industrial policy and economic outlook. You touched on it before, but step that out a little further for us.

Nick: Yeah, I think it plays into this whole sort of Global decoupling that we’ve seen really accelerated by the Trump administration’s America first policies where it’s very much more transactional, where global alliances don’t matter anymore, where trade is potentially weaponised. Where countries are having to think about supply chains, about reshoring, about reindustrialisation that we’ve seen in Australia case in point, we’ve got that future made in Australia policy. We’ve seen bailouts of various metal smelters and things recently. It plays into that whole theme where governments are having to really think about national security, and that could be, more spending on defence, but also economic security in terms of securing critical minerals energy. having metal and manufacturing capabilities either onshore

Vincent: Or a very trusted partner

Nick: or French shoring or to neighbours that we can trust.

Vincent: If we take the COVID period, I think it caused a lot of countries to look at their supply chains and think, well, hold on a second. We’ve moved to this offshoring of everything and perhaps we’ve gone way too far in that front, and we’ve seen a bit of a trend through the post COVID era. But, probably particularly led out of the US as countries get more thinking about what are critical industries. What are critical resources. Let’s make sure that we’ve got our hands on some of them. Or have them closer at hand than we’ve had over recent years and, building up with some barriers there, again, without a doubt. Yeah, this is not a trend that’s purely isolated to potentially this administration in the US this probably is a broader trend we’re seeing globally right now.

Nick: Yeah, I think so. I think COVID highlighted it, and that wasn’t necessarily for geopolitical reasons, that was just an awareness that everyone went when there’s scarcity everyone sort of wants to keep stuff for them their own citizens it’s really a shift away from that, what they call the Washington consensus, which was all about globalisation, about the lowest cost provider being the, competitive advantage.

Vincent: And that obviously saw a lot of production move to China and cheaper countries. How do you think definitely in reverse. How do you think about this trend from an investment perspective?

Nick: So, putting your investing hat on, you think, okay, what are the industries that are potentially going to benefit from that? It’s old heavy, potentially old heavy industry. It’s metals and mining, it’s critical minerals. It’s defence industries that have to be potentially created. So, there are ramifications for, different investment. Sectors, I guess that could play out over many years.

Vincent: That wouldn’t be any 2026 outlook. Before we get to the big, the big topic of AI, and so it’s a broad area and there’s different parts of the AI value chain. The absolute standout beneficiary over the last few years has obviously been Nvidia and they’ve been the chip supplier du jour to pretty much the entire industry. That position has, maybe those, sands are beginning to shift a little, but a couple of parts to this, I guess, how do you think about. AI’s roll out and adoption more broadly in our respect. We’re probably still quite early in that journey, but two, how you think about it as an investor and obviously can’t get away from the bubble. Talk around just how hard some of these. Assets have run in terms of valuation, particularly potentially in the private markets with companies like ChatGPT?

Nick: Yeah, I do feel like it’s a bit of a rerun. We did write about AI bubble theme last year and we’re writing it about it again this year, and maybe we’ll write about it again in, at the end of next year. So, I think it’s definitely an ongoing theme. AI is definitely here to stay. It’s part of a, long term theme, so I write about the amount, really just the eye watering amount of money that’s being invested in data centres in Nvidia chips, in energy infrastructure to support these data centres. And where do the returns come from? In the report, we really struggle to see where the returns come from, the working backwards. If you want an acceptable return on the $7 trillion that’s forecast to be invested between now and 2030 it’s very large revenues that need to be raised to support that. And where do they come from? Do they come from, new areas or is it. Trying to soak up things like advertising or subscription services, you know?

Vincent: Yeah, it’s worth taking a second just to restate that, because we have talked about it on the podcast before, but you’ve got some businesses that are very clear sellers of cloud services. So very obvious, they build a data centre where they can sell, their cloud services from having those infrastructure facilities available. You’ve got then a touch removed so that the matters of this world. And I should say in that first category, we probably have the Microsoft’s and the Alphabet. Then we have those a touch removed such as Meta, whose core business is really advertising and it’s not clear how they. Turn their investment there into a revenue line. But they might just see it as an existential. And then you have organisations probably another notch down, like OpenAI the company behind ChatGPT trading on half a trillion dollar type valuation with revenues that are certainly sub 20 billion today and the path is just quite hard to figure out.

Nick: Yeah. It’s hard to make the maths work and we get into that and we think, well, okay, maybe some of this money won’t ultimately be spent, you know, the big plans. But, I guess they can scale those back.

Vincent: If the returns aren’t there, the revenue’s not coming through.

Nick: And then we talk about maybe it’s good that, like the railroad road boom in the 1800’s that’s where fortunes were made and lost.

Vincent: And there was money spent and parallel rails put down in certain scenarios.

Nick: But it was, ultimately for the public at large, it was great. It actually boosted, productivity. But the actual people that spent the money maybe never made any returns from that, but the public at large benefited from the improved productivity and faster GDP growth. We talk about things like that. And I think, more recently there have been concerns about the circular financing, the vendor financing, where you get, Nvidia putting money into OpenAI, who then contracts with Microsoft to use their data centres who then use. A firm like Core Weave who are called a Neo Cloud to rent their GPUs, because they don’t have the capacity, who then go and buy the video chips in Nvidia chips. That’s this whole circular thing where one person’s investment is another person’s revenue.

Vincent: And we question there’s been quite a few of those transactions over the last three months or so.

Nick: There’s a lot if you try and draw, it looks like a cobweb of interconnections between these big players. So, thinking about that and then thinking about also the increase in debt that we’ve seen in the last six months or so. So, a lot of these big companies like Apple and Meta and even Nvidia they’ve got a lot of cash, and they’ve got not much debt, but that’s starting to change. They just to fund $7 trillion worth of investment over the next five years. They can’t just rely on their cash flow and their excess cash, they’re going to have to borrow money. So, we delve into that and think about the risks that may come from that. But I think the conclusion is, at the moment, we don’t see bubbles in all areas of AI. To your comment about, for example, open AI with a $500 billion, , valuation, a $1.4 trillion , CapEx plan and just $13 billion of run rate revenue and $10 billion of losses this year. It’s just hard to see how.

Vincent: There will, certainly, we don’t know who all the winners will be, but there will be some losers in this process as well. A third key theme in your Outlook report is the blurring of lines between if you want gambling and investing. You talk about the gamification of investing.

Nick: Yeah, I think it’s really interesting. It probably traces its roots back to COVID when everyone was locked down. There were no horse races, there was no sporting events, so the gambling sort of almost switched to the financial markets. You might remember a few years back, GameStop was a company that provided video games through retail stores. Basically a dying business that went through the roof as people got on to the social media websites like Wall Street Bets and everyone polled in on this and it just became another form of gambling.

Vincent: It rose very quickly and it collapsed a game.

Nick: But people have short memories and over the last few years we’ve seen. A lot of investing going into these cryptocurrencies, these triple leathered ETFs, and these are ETFs in an index or a stock but give you three times the gains or three times the losses of the underlying asset. So, they’re very leveraged. We see more of these, what they call zero day to expiry options. Very short dated options that can give you huge gains or losses within the day.

Vincent: So really encouraging that day trading, you go to zero or you can make , a bunch of money on it, and you find out in one day.

Nick: Yeah. It’s very much that short term gambling mentality. We’ve also seen stock exchanges like. Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange and Chicago Board of Options Exchange. All put in sort of filings to try and get 24-hour five day a week or seven day a week trading round the clock trading, so you can trade at midnight. When you come home after going to the bar or something like that just go put on a few. Then also more recently we’ve seen these, what they call prediction markets or event contracts, which are basically you’re poly markets. Poly markets or where they pay you out. People can put bets on basically one way or the other depending on investment markets,

Vincent: On politics, on all sorts of things on the fed cutting rates.

Nick: On anything, on sporting events. So, it’s this really, this fusion of sort of sporting events and gambling and everything’s in an app that gives you, instant gratification and when you, and

Vincent: That’s so interesting when you talk about like, because it bleeds into the media as well, when you think about the amount of times you’d listen to a podcast or read an article and they might quote you what the poly market rate or expectation is on this, and suddenly it’s just part of everyday life. But we’re not day traders so how does it play through, I guess, impact on markets?

Nick: But it is interesting just sort of seeing the whole psychology around it and people, particularly young people, young men in particular who are really into this sort of stuff, what their experience might be and. What it might mean for long-term investors. Does it make prices more volatile? Does it mean we have to be up at midnight looking at what’s going on in markets?

Vincent: Momentum’s clearly been a big driver of markets momentum in recent times. It probably adds to that. And this is possibly an explanation of why momentum has been as strong as it has in recent years.

Nick: That’s right. Momentum has been a huge thing, what we call the Junk Rally Meme, Stock rally this year. And we do have a chart in the report, showing that. That’s been the winning strategy this year, and it’s made it very difficult for active stock pickers that actually like to buy good quality companies that are profitable, that are well valued because this gambling mentality actually rewards you for investing.

Nick: In the opposite of that. Companies with no earnings that have highly volatile.

Vincent: And as you said, for example, the GameStop example’s a perfect one. They can run on forward incredibly quickly, but then when the momentum dies, they drop like a stone on who’s left holding the stock or the people that bear the price of that.

Nick: And we do get clients asking us about Bitcoin and even gold more recently, which is displaying some of the sort of momentum to it. So yeah, I think it’s just something to be aware of as a, as a theme.

Vincent: Yeah no, it’s an interesting one and certainly an interesting read and a good pick for you. Japan, not necessarily always in vogue, but, as one of your key factors into 2026, what’s driving the renewed interest in Japanese equities?

Nick: Yeah, this is actually something that’s been going for a couple of years now since the Tokyo Stock Exchange brought in rules to try and get Japanese companies to really become less conservative. So, for many years Japanese management and boards were very conservative. They didn’t want to pay out dividends. They held onto cash profits that they generated. Partly it’s probably some sort of cultural thing, face saving.

Vincent: Oh, very much is cultural. You think of the trends historically, US companies or we were having a bad quarter, let’s sack half the workforce and go again. But it’s made them very lean and very productive and very responsive. Japan’s culture is, I guess a bit stereotypical, but quite the opposite job for life. Saving face nothing should be allowed to fail almost.

Nick: That’s right, and they also have a lot of what they call these cross shareholdings, where company A will own shares in company B for no other reason, except just to protect the Japan ink from takeover by foreigners. So, the Tokyo Stock Exchange a couple of years ago has really put pressure on them to unwind this mentality, to release a lot of this capital being built up on their balance sheets to unwind these cross shareholdings to just be more commercial. And it’s, been great. Like, Japan’s stock market has been one of the best performers over the past couple of years, including year to date, it’s done better than the US market, for example, as with value is gradually getting unlocked. So, we talk about that, how to potentially invest in that and participate with that. And we’re seeing, some of the private equity funds that we work with, finally they’re being allowed into Japan to try and buy some of these cheap assets and help unlock value for these companies.

Vincent: But it’s tricky, their culture’s slow to change, those changes will take time. But it’s sort of a, I guess, a step for them and I guess probably in the right direction in terms of their stock market, which, it’s not necessarily had the greatest of time for a decade or so. And geopolitics, of course factor number five. What are the key trends or risks as we step into 2026, given just how much is going on now?

Nick: Yeah, actually, there’s nothing that really jumps out this year as a sort of a risk. I mean, obviously some things like black swan events, the unknown unknowns. But when we look at things, we think about some big ones like East Asia, the South China Sea, Taiwan, we think that’s probably not something for the next year. That’s more of a longer-term theme. I mean, there were reports of the Chinese being ordered to modernise their military to be ready to take Taiwan in 2027. But I think they’ve still got a few more years before they’re really ready to do that. And we know, China’s trying to develop its own semiconductor industry, so it’s not necessarily relying on Taiwanese chips, and the US is trying to do the same. And once they no longer need Taiwan, it’s going to be a lot less chips, a lot less strategically, then I think maybe the US will say, you can have Taiwan, we don’t need it anymore. Might depend on who’s in the White House at the time, but that’s, I think a few years away. So, we don’t see that as a big risk in the next year. And slightly optimistic that maybe they can sort something out in Ukraine, although, who knows. We were about to get to the fourth anniversary of that conflict.

Vincent: You talked to last year, I guess the fear there was that it did go into a broader conflict in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, and that would’ve an impact on energy supplies.

Nick: Yeah, and that briefly happened in the middle of the year but has fallen away. So, the Middle East in some ways, looks, a bit more stable. I mean there’s always risks there of course, but that’s not as great as probably it was 12 months ago.

Vincent: Possibly a slight notch lower. And just to sort of pull this back together, and obviously I encourage everyone to read the report because that’s where the granularity and the real value is, but high-level thoughts on asset classes. Because you talked there about 2025 and US equities in particular could have been strong another 12 months. How do you read the outlook across, if I talked just high level, particularly equities and bonds, fixed income?

Nick: Well, I think from an equity perspective we are still reasonably optimistic about equities, there’s a lot of tailwinds, some of which we’ve described about lower interest rates, improving consumer spending, potentially the US economy could get a growth jolt. Heading into the midterms, Trump’s obviously keen and the Republicans are keen to, not lose the house and for Trump to become a lame duck. So, there is, that some of the stimulus flowing from the one big, beautiful bill, which could, could be supportive.

Vincent: So, yeah. And that’s a, that’s a very important point because we talked about how the Trump administration came out. This year, and it was kind of tipped on its head. They came out with that more aggressive tariff policy, and then that sort of deregulation, tax cutting type stuff came later, all wrapped up in the world’s most ridiculous big bill. But that probably hasn’t really been felt necessarily by their economy.

Nick: No that will start to play out in coming months as people get tax refunds and things like that. So, I think there’s a lot of tailwinds and some of the tariff things will fade. I mean, there’s even possibility that some of those tariffs get rolled back or the Supreme Court deems them illegal and then they have to pay refunds to people, which could juice the economy a bit as well. So net, we’re reasonably positive. I said Europe’s going reasonably well with all that defence spending. The broader themes about Onshoring and Reindustrialization are positive. So, we’re positive and we think it could be equity returns, could be somewhere between 10 and 15%.

Vincent: So, we’re going to be a bit bolder this year, right? It’s slightly ahead of trend still.

Nick: And there’s the AI infrastructure investment. And we know the most recent, like this year, earnings did grow about 15%. So, assuming equities track earnings, then you could have 10 to 15% return.

Vincent: And how do you feel about fixed income with what we’ve spoken to previously on, I guess, where rates are at that sort of spectre of inflation lingering there.

Nick: Yeah, we don’t see, I think like the rate cutting cycle, barring the US and Japan, which is still raising rates in the us which PO possibly has one or two more rates or even more if we get a subject to who the next Fed chair, who the next chair is.

Nick: We think rates are broadly steady. There could be a little bit more steepening in the yield curve. So, people, investors demand slightly high yield on longer dated bonds given questions about debt, sustainability and things like that. But broadly, we think most of the returns for fixed income will come from income. So, you’re looking at a sort of four to 6%. Type return from fixed income in the year ahead, assuming no risk off events or no spread blowout in credit spreads.

Vincent: You remain reasonably comfortable with allocations in both? In both spaces. Excellent. And maybe we wrap by just what are the few things that might be keeping you up at night as we step into 2026 as an investor?

Nick: Yeah, so the key risks that we’re kind of monitoring at the moment are obviously, AI bubble burst. I’m not sure what would cause that, but it could be a realisation that, some of this investment is not justified based on the numbers. We’ve seen some wobbles with Broadcom and Oracle recently, so people are starting to question it. If there was a proper unwind like the .com, then that could even feed back into the real economy.

Vincent: As companies start to slow down their CapEx and data centres and like that, everyone just becomes a bit more cautious. Full stop.

Nick: So that’s a key risk. On the positive side, if the US economy overheats and inflation doesn’t come down and, so they get it, maybe a re-acceleration of inflation and then the Fed has to start hiking rates, that would clearly be bad for bonds and equities. So that’s, an upside or sort of upside risk to growth, but downside risk for asset prices. A debt crisis, we’ve had some cockroaches.

Vincent: Well I was going to say we take almost, the whole private debt space with a degree of caution, but there has certainly been some potential canary in the coal mine type moments.

Nick: Yeah. And it’s not just limited to. Private credit, some of that happened in sub investment grade credit and we, know from time-to-time investors even get worried about government bonds. US government debt, US government bonds, French government bonds, UK potentially just leave.

Vincent: Do you feel some of those, particularly those government debt concerns, they’re going to flare up from time to time.

Nick: Without a doubt. Just with the level of debt needs. Oh, we’ve seen them, almost without fail every six months in some part of the world. Loss of fed independence. We sort of highlighted that when we discussed, questions about who the next fed chair might be, where their loyalties lie. Whether it’s to the independence of the Fed or to the Trump administration who are very aggressively pushing for lower rates. Because if you want to get re-elected, then bringing rates down might help you do that, even if it risks an inflation spike.

Vincent: Well if you want something that’s going to spook the bond market really inappropriate activity, there could, be just that.

Nick: Absolutely. And then I guess the other one is just, sort of a related theme. Some sort of inflation shock. If China stops supplying rare earths or right. Some oil shock or something like that.

Vincent: Supply side constraint, that really then ripples its way through.

Nick: They’re the sort of the key ones that we are looking at. And then there’s the general one of geopolitics and in particular sort of grey zone tactics. We’ve seen Russia sort of probe, send some drones across Poland and sabotage some rail links. And it’s the increasing theme that we’re seeing, the evolution of modern warfare.

Vincent: Yeah. Unfortunately. A wonderful fly across the top. I respect you’ve done very well there given the depth of what’s in your report to sort of give us a quick flavour and I want to congratulate you on that. And I encourage, for any of our listeners that haven’t had a chance yet to download and read that report that they very much need to do so. But thank you once again, Nick and special thank you to all our listeners. I want to wish you all a very happy Christmas and hopefully a healthy and prosperous 2026 ahead. Take care and we’ll speak to you in the new year.

 

 

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